Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sigma.YNTwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Tiny
alone · 29 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 25 games
Hoodwink
alone · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 18 games
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Linaoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
queezy · 33 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 18 games
Skywrath Mage
queezy · 18 games
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 17 games
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 16 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 14 games
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
566 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 505 bans
Tiny
503 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
393 picks · 455 bans
Mirana
368 picks · 355 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 173 bans
Clockwerk
300 picks · 190 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
X3 53%Sigma.YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linanesfeer
Terrorbladev1olent-
LycanShergarat
Queen of Painforyou
BatriderNattyNarwhal
Marcikur0patbI4
Snapfirealone
Hoodwinkqueezy
Clockwerkdark
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
Game 2prediction missed20:34
X3 55%Sigma.YNT 45%
The model gave 55% on X3 — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linanesfeer
Marciv1olent-
EnigmaShergarat
Snapfirekur0patbI4
BatriderNattyNarwhal
Windrangerforyou
Tuskalone
Tinyqueezy
Phoenixdark
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
Game 3prediction missed14:36
X3 53%Sigma.YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snipernesfeer
Slarkv1olent-
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Tinkerforyou
BeastmasterShergarat
Chenkur0patbI4
Hoodwinkalone
Tinyqueezy
Clockwerkdark
RubickVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 56%
Series resultSigma.YNT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3