Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Miranasignature
Dy · 18 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 17 games
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
Rubick
Kaka · 13 games
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 12 games
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
Tiny
Kaka · 10 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
Rubick
Antares · 40 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 33 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 31 game
Doomsignature
MieRo · 30 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 28 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 26 games
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
473 picks · 323 bans
Doom
459 picks · 987 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 846 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Batrider
390 picks · 933 bans
Beastmaster
378 picks · 1003 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Xtreme Gaming 38%9Pandas 62%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 24:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerGhost
Broodmotherkiyotaka
Ember SpiritPaparazi
DoomRAMZES666
MagnusJT-
EnigmaMieRo
BatriderDy
Spirit BreakerAntares
Dark WillowXinQ
OracleSolo
Game 2prediction correct25:33
Xtreme Gaming 37%9Pandas 63%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerGhost
AlchemistRAMZES666
MarsJT-
LycanMieRo
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Windrangerkiyotaka
SnapfireXinQ
LionAntares
Shadow DemonDy
UndyingSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 70%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2