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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 27 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 5 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 708 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
327 picks · 626 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 372 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
322 picks · 264 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
322 picks · 215 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 468 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
303 picks · 350 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 537 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total75% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:7
Xtreme Gaming 60%Aurora Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
50% · 203 games57% · 49 games
Broodmother23savage
Broodmother
Puck
PuckXm
55% · 173 games52% · 176 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
51% · 160 games47% · 171 game
BrewmasterJabz
Brewmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingXinQ
52% · 93 games44% · 137 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
53% · 110 games43% · 206 games
Crystal MaidenOli
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Xtreme Gaming 60%Aurora Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
47% · 144 games61% · 175 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
56% · 177 games49% · 128 games
InvokerLorenof
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
45% · 51 game41% · 15 games
Sand KingJabz
Sand King
Monkey King
Monkey KingXinQ
48% · 70 games54% · 203 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
39% · 104 games53% · 25 games
VenomancerOli
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2