BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
fy · 13 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 13 games
Cloud Rising
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
Void Spirit
Q7 · 4 games
Sven
Yumeyume · 3 games
Clinkz
Yumeyume · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Leshrac
Q7 · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
589 picks · 622 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 330 bans
Dragon Knight
501 picks · 687 bans
Snapfire
492 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
444 picks · 224 bans
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 529 bans
Mars
395 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Xtreme Gaming 85%Cloud Rising 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkAme
MorphlingYumeyume
Primal BeastXxs
Dragon KnightQ7
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
RingmasterUndyne_
WarlockxNova
Shadow Demonfy
Game 2prediction correct20:15
Xtreme Gaming 86%Cloud Rising 14%
The model gave 86% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightAme
GyrocopterYumeyume
TimbersawXxs
Ember SpiritQ7
Queen of PainNothingToSay
DazzleUndyne_
ChenxNova
Lionfy
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 98%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2