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Asian Champions League 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Excel Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 21 game
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Poloson · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 18 games
72%

Excel Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 6 games
17%
Batrider
Batrider
Hara · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
0%
Lina
Lina
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
RedPanda · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Hara · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
476 picks · 470 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 566 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
338 picks · 158 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 529 bans
47%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
280 picks · 576 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
270 picks · 574 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
267 picks · 502 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
265 picks · 150 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength64% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:6
Xtreme Gaming 83%Excel Esports 17%
The model gave 83% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
55% · 130 games51% · 275 games
TinyManic
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
52% · 206 games48% · 92 games
Medusa生死
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingXm
49% · 188 games60% · 12 games
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
Outworld Destroyer
Tinker
TinkerPoloson
46% · 74 games51% · 191 game
WindrangerCatYou
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
51% · 60 games43% · 88 games
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct22:9
Xtreme Gaming 83%Excel Esports 17%
The model gave 83% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
53% · 268 games47% · 157 games
Templar AssassinManic
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXm
47% · 221 game48% · 111 games
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Shadow Fiend
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
60% · 71 game41% · 166 games
Mars生死
Mars
Slark
SlarkXinQ
57% · 42 games50% · 100 games
Shadow ShamanCatYou
Shadow Shaman
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
60% · 81 game44% · 149 games
SilencerRedPanda
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 95%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2