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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 13 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 11 games
91%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 7 games
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 7 games
100%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 22 games
59%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Seleri · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 14 games
71%
Sven
Sven
dyrachyo · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 343 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 486 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
302 picks · 420 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
286 picks · 202 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 412 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 490 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
Xtreme Gaming 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaXm
50% · 58 games47% · 196 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Lifestealer
LifestealerAme
49% · 74 games59% · 46 games
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsXxs
52% · 194 games57% · 102 games
MagnusAce
Magnus
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
55% · 192 games45% · 122 games
TerrorbladetOfu
Terrorblade
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
61% · 57 games33% · 109 games
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct27:35
Xtreme Gaming 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:11:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
48% · 212 games51% · 55 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Sniper
SniperXm
46% · 25 games55% · 139 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXxs
40% · 73 games63% · 186 games
MagnusAce
Magnus
Rubick
RubickXinQ
46% · 395 games59% · 234 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
42% · 133 games49% · 224 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2