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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 30 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 19 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 15 games
27%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
79%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 27 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 19 games
37%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 16 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 15 games
40%
Kez
Kezsignature
RCY · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 298 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 169 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
370 picks · 164 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 491 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 309 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
300 picks · 283 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 486 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
274 picks · 362 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:20
Xtreme Gaming 55%GamerLegion 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAme
47% · 153 games47% · 119 games
Nature's ProphetTimado
Nature's Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
49% · 118 games59% · 340 games
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Centaur Warrunner
Lina
LinaXm
48% · 86 games49% · 171 game
LargoRCY
Largo
Jakiro
JakiroBoBoKa
40% · 384 games59% · 63 games
Bounty HunterBignum
Bounty Hunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerXinQ
50% · 71 game57% · 119 games
DazzleSpeeed
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct34:23
Xtreme Gaming 58%GamerLegion 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 54:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
46% · 162 games47% · 170 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
49% · 268 games49% · 284 games
Dragon KnightRCY
Dragon Knight
Doom
Doomzeal
55% · 179 games50% · 253 games
BatriderFayde
Batrider
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
47% · 249 games55% · 184 games
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Winter Wyvern
Dazzle
DazzleBoBoKa
44% · 103 games57% · 70 games
Bounty HunterBignum
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2