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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
40%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 26 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 21 game
76%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 19 games
84%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 735 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 785 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 474 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 372 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
433 picks · 525 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1039 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
413 picks · 931 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 532 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Xtreme Gaming 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
47% · 115 games50% · 26 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
52% · 164 games51% · 79 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
53% · 61 game44% · 76 games
MarciNo!ob
Marci
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
44% · 17 games57% · 68 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerUndyne_
61% · 9 games49% · 117 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Xtreme Gaming 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
47% · 114 games54% · 130 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
45% · 123 games48% · 67 games
MarciNo!ob
Marci
Mars
MarsXxs
50% · 261 game54% · 43 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Undying
UndyingUndyne_
54% · 45 games46% · 184 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
55% · 20 games53% · 139 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2