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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 29 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 26 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 22 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 21 game
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 33 games
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
OmaR · 32 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 27 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 24 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 637 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
464 picks · 414 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 852 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
404 picks · 455 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 339 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:50
Xtreme Gaming 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:05:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckXm
53% · 324 games48% · 161 game
SvenGhost
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
45% · 505 games47% · 267 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
52% · 195 games57% · 215 games
MagnusNo!ob
Magnus
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXinQ
51% · 198 games49% · 428 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Undying
UndyingPoloson
56% · 98 games42% · 249 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct24:18
Xtreme Gaming 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 53:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
47% · 265 games42% · 56 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
50% · 185 games56% · 339 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXm
46% · 178 games55% · 239 games
MagnusSumaiL
Magnus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
48% · 190 games58% · 128 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Warlock
WarlockPoloson
53% · 148 games43% · 204 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 67%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2