BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 25 games
Tusk
fy · 25 games
Phoenix
xNova · 23 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 23 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 21 game
Roar Gaming
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 15 games
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 14 games
Disruptor
RedPanda · 12 games
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
Snapfire
RedPanda · 11 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
679 picks · 841 bans
Tiny
572 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 426 bans
Warlock
472 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1147 bans
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 689 bans
Mars
398 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1028 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Xtreme Gaming 96%Roar Gaming 4%
The model gave 96% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct39:16
Xtreme Gaming 85%Roar Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingAme
Templar Assassinukiyo
MarsXxs
Batrider生死
HuskarNothingToSay
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Iofy
RubickLOyd
DisruptorxNova
Void SpiritCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 96%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2