Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shenzhenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
Dy · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 2 games
Bane
Dy · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Srf · 1 game
Disruptor
Dy · 1 game
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
328 picks · 472 bans
Bane
281 picks · 214 bans
Snapfire
276 picks · 156 bans
Tidehunter
263 picks · 397 bans
Weaver
263 picks · 580 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 709 bans
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 300 bans
Lion
214 picks · 101 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:4
Xtreme Gaming 53%Shenzhen 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:18.
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Xtreme Gaming 53%Shenzhen 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2