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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 14 games
79%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 6 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Pyw · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 6 games
50%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 29 games
59%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ori · 18 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcioften banned
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 335 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
332 picks · 327 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
217 picks · 227 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 532 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
195 picks · 422 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
195 picks · 108 bans
44%
Rubick
Rubick
192 picks · 146 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total72% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:15
Xtreme Gaming 38%Team Aster 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordGhost
50% · 56 games47% · 77 games
Naga SirenMonet
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
51% · 321 game49% · 372 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJT-
55% · 42 games56% · 72 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Tusk
TuskPyw
54% · 308 games40% · 109 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Silencer
SilencerDy
49% · 99 games50% · 196 games
MiranaFantasy
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed24:17
Xtreme Gaming 40%Team Aster 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaPaparazi
45% · 187 games56% · 47 games
Naga SirenMonet
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawJT-
50% · 142 games50% · 77 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
51% · 36 games56% · 318 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Lion
LionPyw
47% · 58 games48% · 149 games
RubickBoBoKa
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDy
53% · 245 games43% · 77 games
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct13:31
Xtreme Gaming 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkGhost
58% · 77 games57% · 53 games
SniperMonet
Sniper
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
46% · 332 games48% · 247 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Enigma
EnigmaJT-
51% · 183 games46% · 186 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
42% · 155 games49% · 218 games
MarciBoBoKa
Marci
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
51% · 143 games56% · 186 games
MiranaFantasy
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 72%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3