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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Cobraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 24 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Xm · 15 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 13 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 12 games
67%

Team Cobra

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 3 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
K1 · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
K1 · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Frank · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
744 picks · 351 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 635 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 290 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
437 picks · 262 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1184 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 477 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 709 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
384 picks · 247 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 38%
Hero pool strength63% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:17
Xtreme Gaming 78%Team Cobra 22%
The model gave 78% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Cobra in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
52% · 71 game47% · 226 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Axe
AxeXxs
51% · 135 games56% · 107 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
46% · 472 games47% · 175 games
Marspayk
Mars
Chen
ChenxNova
57% · 239 games55% · 212 games
SnapfireElmisho
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magefy
43% · 85 games46% · 282 games
TuskMichael
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:22
Xtreme Gaming 79%Team Cobra 21%
The model gave 79% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
51% · 333 games50% · 239 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
59% · 110 games45% · 175 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
55% · 262 games45% · 239 games
Centaur Warrunnerpayk
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
Tuskfy
45% · 364 games48% · 283 games
SnapfireElmisho
Snapfire
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionxNova
52% · 105 games50% · 238 games
PugnaMichael
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct28:22
Xtreme Gaming 79%Team Cobra 21%
The model gave 79% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
47% · 363 games47% · 303 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
54% · 372 games53% · 454 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
52% · 360 games44% · 278 games
Centaur Warrunnerpayk
Centaur Warrunner
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
57% · 123 games48% · 262 games
Shadow DemonMichael
Shadow Demon
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
47% · 282 games51% · 203 games
MarciElmisho
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 93%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3