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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nemesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 29 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 18 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
33%

Team Nemesis

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jhocam · 17 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 295 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
372 picks · 162 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
360 picks · 160 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 482 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
304 picks · 304 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 473 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
293 picks · 274 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 370 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Xtreme Gaming 65%Team Nemesis 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAme
57% · 126 games48% · 81 game
LunaJaCkky
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
61% · 461 game43% · 250 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Doom
Doomzeal
52% · 246 games49% · 173 games
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
51% · 244 games47% · 584 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
47% · 193 games45% · 182 games
UndyingNARMAN
Undying
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Xtreme Gaming 63%Team Nemesis 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
52% · 193 games47% · 101 game
UrsaJaCkky
Ursa
Doom
Doomzeal
49% · 248 games49% · 130 games
Dragon KnightSabeRLight-
Dragon Knight
Slark
SlarkXm
50% · 81 game58% · 83 games
ViperMo13ei
Viper
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
49% · 227 games48% · 471 game
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
46% · 188 games54% · 152 games
Winter WyvernNARMAN
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2