ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 20 games
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
Muerta
Pyw · 19 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
niu · 14 games
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Faith_bian · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
487 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
447 picks · 584 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 532 bans
Lion
422 picks · 229 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 720 bans
Phoenix
406 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 599 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 944 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:18
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Tidebound 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterlou
Razorshiro
ViperXm
Night StalkerFaith_bian
Beastmasterniu
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
TinyPyw
HoodwinkpLAnet
Shadow ShamanPoloson
Clockwerky`
Game 2prediction missed5:17
Xtreme Gaming 54%Team Tidebound 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
Templar Assassinshiro
Queen of PainXm
LycanFaith_bian
Beastmasterniu
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
TinyPyw
ClockwerkpLAnet
Shadow ShamanPoloson
Enchantressy`
Game 3prediction correct20:15
Xtreme Gaming 51%Team Tidebound 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelou
BeastmasterFaith_bian
LinaXm
Broodmothershiro
Timbersawniu
SniperNothingToSay
TinyPyw
ClockwerkpLAnet
PugnaPoloson
Phoenixy`
Game 4prediction correct27:15
Xtreme Gaming 55%Team Tidebound 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterlou
Morphlingshiro
PuckXm
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Beastmasterniu
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
MuertaPyw
RikipLAnet
ClockwerkPoloson
Pugnay`
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 56%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4