ESL Challenger China · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0series probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TThrivingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlocksignature
xNova · 22 games
Disruptor
xNova · 15 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
fy · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
fy · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Thriving
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
570 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 405 bans
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 654 bans
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 627 bans
Shadow Demon
419 picks · 899 bans
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 623 bans
Mars
369 picks · 516 bans
Warlock
363 picks · 220 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:5
Xtreme Gaming 87%Thriving 13%
The model gave 87% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 26:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzAme
LunaRA1NCLOUD
Primal BeastXxs
Queen of PainNothingToSay
Largofy
Treant ProtectorxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 98%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1