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Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
90%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 8 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
83%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Another · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Another · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 5 games
60%

Vici Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ELeVeN · 19 games
58%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Pyw · 19 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 18 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 16 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ori · 13 games
77%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
ELeVeN · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
446 picks · 331 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 604 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 431 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 788 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 183 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
273 picks · 463 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
269 picks · 397 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 339 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:10
Xtreme Gaming 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorELeVeN
54% · 143 games47% · 182 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Ursa
Ursalou
56% · 164 games50% · 192 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
46% · 208 games48% · 112 games
BloodseekerIrving
Bloodseeker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
58% · 215 games44% · 230 games
GrimstrokeYds
Grimstroke
Io
IoDy
48% · 205 games48% · 219 games
TidehunterVictoria
Tidehunter
Game 2prediction correct24:7
Xtreme Gaming 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 19:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinlou
43% · 140 games71% · 6 games
TinkerXm
Tinker
Broodmother
BroodmotherELeVeN
50% · 38 games58% · 188 games
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
Monkey King
Razor
RazorPaparazi
50% · 121 game51% · 173 games
BeastmasterIrving
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
47% · 196 games49% · 169 games
RubickYds
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
52% · 246 games49% · 205 games
TidehunterVictoria
Tidehunter
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 52%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2