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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 10 games
70%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%
Luna
Lunasignature
flyfly · 9 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
flyfly · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 9 games
44%

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Q · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 494 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 537 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 339 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 544 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Yakult Brothers 51%Aurora Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 43:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEmo
44% · 152 games43% · 261 game
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
53% · 251 game53% · 220 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Alchemist
Alchemistflyfly
54% · 232 games49% · 118 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoBoKa
55% · 130 games49% · 216 games
Dark WillowQ
Dark Willow
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
49% · 329 games51% · 279 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct27:53
Yakult Brothers 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingflyfly
46% · 300 games57% · 150 games
UrsaPalos
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerEmo
52% · 206 games51% · 438 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Doom
Doomzeal
51% · 251 game48% · 96 games
DawnbreakerJabz
Dawnbreaker
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
45% · 184 games53% · 261 game
LionQ
Lion
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
46% · 315 games51% · 311 games
GyrocopterOli
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2