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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hong shi zhang zuiloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 12 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%

Hong shi zhang zui

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 5 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
TK · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TK · 4 games
75%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 4 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 3 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 3 games
100%
Bane
Bane
Undyne_ · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
316 picks · 784 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
315 picks · 291 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 743 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
269 picks · 300 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 248 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
263 picks · 127 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 765 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 78%
Hero pool strength62% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
Yakult Brothers 52%Hong shi zhang zui 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 46:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflyfly
50% · 159 games50% · 47 games
Faceless Voidlou
Faceless Void
Magnus
Magnuszeal
56% · 171 game46% · 297 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
Beastmaster
Slark
SlarkBoBoKa
56% · 42 games40% · 121 game
SnapfireTK
Snapfire
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEmo
50% · 140 games52% · 200 games
PugnaUndyne_
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPoloson
53% · 153 games
Game 2prediction missed23:11
Yakult Brothers 49%Hong shi zhang zui 51%
The model gave 51% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
45% · 212 games52% · 220 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckEmo
48% · 168 games50% · 129 games
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
Slardarzeal
53% · 70 games55% · 155 games
SnapfireTK
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorPoloson
48% · 114 games44% · 134 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Alchemist
AlchemistBoBoKa
56% · 74 games
Game 3prediction missed24:10
Yakult Brothers 50%Hong shi zhang zui 50%
The model gave 50% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaflyfly
58% · 68 games56% · 70 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Doom
Doomzeal
55% · 94 games56% · 97 games
Night StalkerBEYOND
Night Stalker
Puck
PuckEmo
47% · 119 games41% · 165 games
SnapfireTK
Snapfire
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoBoKa
51% · 103 games44% · 172 games
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaPoloson
46% · 120 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 57%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3