ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MDMideng Dreamerloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Jakiro
天命 · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Moon · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moon · 17 games
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 16 games
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Weaversignature
flyfly · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 14 games
Mideng Dreamer
Beastmasteroften banned
7e · 4 games
Muertaoften banned
Yumeyume · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Dazzle
Undyne_ · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Void Spirit
7e · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
518 picks · 428 bans
Hoodwink
473 picks · 243 bans
Phoenix
472 picks · 527 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 353 bans
Tusk
417 picks · 355 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 798 bans
Puck
351 picks · 856 bans
Warlock
347 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Mideng Dreamer
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Yakult Brothers 64%Mideng Dreamer 36%
The model gave 64% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinylou
KezYumeyume
PuckMoon
Sand King7e
AxeJT-
SlardarBEYOND
HoodwinkBoBoKa
WarlockUndyne_
Phoenix天命
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 77%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1