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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
41%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
flyfly · 12 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
BoBoKa · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
flyfly · 11 games
45%

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
TK · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
生死 · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 5 games
20%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
TK · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 517 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
397 picks · 325 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 384 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 571 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
345 picks · 169 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
339 picks · 425 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 772 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
318 picks · 469 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:10
Yakult Brothers 77%Spiky Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreAme
53% · 24 games45% · 211 games
Doom生死
Doom
Enigma
Enigmazeal
51% · 108 games47% · 168 games
RazorButterflyEffect
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
56% · 139 games50% · 155 games
Magnusukiyo
Magnus
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterBoBoKa
51% · 237 games52% · 191 game
MuertaTK
Muerta
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
47% · 217 games
Game 2prediction correct26:11
Yakult Brothers 79%Spiky Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAme
49% · 21 game44% · 138 games
Morphlingukiyo
Morphling
Lycan
Lycanzeal
45% · 22 games43% · 96 games
Earth SpiritButterflyEffect
Earth Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
52% · 196 games45% · 142 games
Primal Beast生死
Primal Beast
Pugna
Pugna天命
56% · 178 games45% · 118 games
MuertaTK
Muerta
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoBoKa
67% · 77 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 91%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2