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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Kukuysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 20 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 19 games
42%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 17 games
41%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 17 games
29%

Team Kukuys

Mars
Marssignature
JG · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 9 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DJ · 6 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Kuku · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Armel · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 872 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 384 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 636 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 595 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
398 picks · 826 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 579 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 570 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:33
Yakult Brothers 61%Team Kukuys 39%
The model gave 61% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorflyfly
51% · 42 games52% · 197 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMoon
44% · 103 games43% · 210 games
TinyJing
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerYang
52% · 178 games
Bane
BaneBoBoKa
59% · 79 games
Largo
Largo天命
67% · 5 games
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Yakult Brothers 58%Team Kukuys 42%
The model gave 58% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 23:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
39% · 144 games51% · 235 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Viper
ViperMoon
53% · 28 games45% · 63 games
PudgeJing
Pudge
Brewmaster
BrewmasterYang
47% · 26 games
Chen
Chen天命
61% · 64 games
Lion
LionBoBoKa
58% · 36 games
Game 3prediction correct30:29
Yakult Brothers 59%Team Kukuys 41%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 45:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorflyfly
58% · 16 games56% · 89 games
Keeper of the LightYowe
Keeper of the Light
Viper
ViperMoon
54% · 22 games46% · 354 games
TuskJing
Tusk
Tidehunter
TidehunterYang
44% · 106 games
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
53% · 122 games
Warlock
Warlock天命
44% · 177 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 68%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3