ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO1
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tearlamentswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerk
天命 · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
Magnussignature
zeal · 17 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 16 games
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
Tearlaments
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
443 picks · 669 bans
Jakiro
402 picks · 402 bans
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 719 bans
Bristleback
325 picks · 606 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 525 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 186 bans
Beastmaster
298 picks · 579 bans
Warlock
294 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yakult Brothers 82%Tearlaments 18%
The model gave 82% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Tearlaments.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 82%
Series resultTearlaments 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1