Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 946 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 573 bans
Mars
332 picks · 610 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 584 bans
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 264 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 58%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictionmissed