PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Execration
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Marci
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
450 picks · 369 bans
Clockwerk
422 picks · 550 bans
Batrider
371 picks · 474 bans
Lion
367 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 571 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 589 bans
Phoenix
353 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
344 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:43
Yangon Galacticos 41%Execration 59%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinKsh
SpectreAkashi
InvokerYoung PH
MagnusTino-
39% · 10 games
ZeusShanks
41% · 21 game
Lichcml
Game 2prediction correct32:30
Yangon Galacticos 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 47:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKsh
Dragon KnightAkashi
Earth SpiritYoung PH
TimbersawTino-
50% · 84 games
MuertaShanks
53% · 57 games
Ogre Magicml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2