BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TPTrailer Park Boyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Trailer Park Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
589 picks · 627 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 332 bans
Dragon Knight
503 picks · 689 bans
Snapfire
491 picks · 188 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
Hoodwink
444 picks · 224 bans
Mars
397 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Trailer Park Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Trailer Park Boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Yangon Galacticos 39%Trailer Park Boys 61%
The model gave 61% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinKsh
UrsaJaCkky
Sand KingYoung PH
Queen of PainSancity
46% · 125 games
Beastmastereleven
53% · 78 games
WarlockSe
56% · 58 games
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct25:30
Yangon Galacticos 40%Trailer Park Boys 60%
The model gave 60% on Trailer Park Boys — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightKsh
Troll WarlordJaCkky
Shadow FiendYoung PH
Visageeleven
50% · 53 games
Void SpiritSancity
49% · 184 games
JakiroSe
48% · 193 games
TuskNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteTrailer Park Boys · 70%
Series resultTrailer Park Boys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2