Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingwin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 7 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lwwnb · 5 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 5 games
Hoodwink
Helios · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Helios · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
426 picks · 272 bans
Mars
413 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 428 bans
Death Prophet
343 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 450 bans
Sand King
306 picks · 410 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 397 bans
Weaver
261 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:38
Ybb Gaming 45%Phoenix Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 1:04:20.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 55%
Series resultYbb Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1