The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team MagMaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
725 picks · 573 bans
Puck
504 picks · 1022 bans
Dawnbreaker
490 picks · 650 bans
Marci
472 picks · 817 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 392 bans
Razor
303 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
Ybb Gaming 51%Team MagMa 49%
The model gave 51% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 35:03.
Game 2prediction missed18:37
Ybb Gaming 51%Team MagMa 49%
The model gave 51% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 44:08.
Game 3prediction missed35:20
Ybb Gaming 51%Team MagMa 49%
The model gave 51% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 42:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 51%
Series resultYbb Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3