Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 3:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 3:2
1w Teamloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 33 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 28 games
Techies
rue · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 24 games
Rubick
rue · 19 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 36 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Batridersignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
398 picks · 630 bans
Gyrocopter
347 picks · 367 bans
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 435 bans
Crystal Maiden
333 picks · 126 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
316 picks · 162 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
310 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 74%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:41
Yellow Submarine 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:04:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSatanic
WindrangerMunkushi~
Dark Seerkasane
BeastmasterCloud
Pangoliererase
TinyChira JUNIOR
Hoodwinkrue
EnchantressRESPECT
Witch Doctorasdekor_r
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Game 2prediction missed23:21
Yellow Submarine 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSatanic
LifestealerMunkushi~
Underlordkasane
BroodmotherCloud
Storm Spiriterase
TinyChira JUNIOR
Batriderasdekor_r
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Shadow Demonrue
DisruptorRESPECT
Game 3prediction correct14:36
Yellow Submarine 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSatanic
BrewmasterCloud
Storm Spiriterase
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Phoenixkasane
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
Spirit Breakerrue
EnchantressRESPECT
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Marciswedenstrong
Game 4prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 39%1w Team 61%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 5prediction missed25:40
Yellow Submarine 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 57:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSatanic
Anti-MageMunkushi~
Underlordkasane
PangolierCloud
Storm Spiriterase
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Phoenixrue
Marciswedenstrong
Clockwerkasdekor_r
BatriderRESPECT
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series resultYellow Submarine 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5