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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Htrd · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
re1bl · 6 games
67%
Lich
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Htrd · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ififall · 4 games
75%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 23 games
48%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
507 picks · 684 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 404 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
471 picks · 565 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
469 picks · 596 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 536 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 799 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
424 picks · 949 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total84% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:22
Yellow Submarine 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
48% · 189 games51% · 113 games
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerififall
49% · 143 games48% · 216 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritre1bl
44% · 198 games50% · 356 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderHtrd
49% · 457 games53% · 223 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Riki
Rikimrls
56% · 19 games59% · 98 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct14:34
Yellow Submarine 29%1w Team 71%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnesfeer
53% · 227 games49% · 266 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolierre1bl
48% · 319 games48% · 97 games
Night StalkerCloud
Night Stalker
Doom
Doomififall
51% · 166 games53% · 298 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressHtrd
53% · 182 games54% · 394 games
Lionswedenstrong
Lion
Batrider
Batridermrls
49% · 273 games44% · 112 games
UndyingFishman
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 84%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2