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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 36 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 20 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 15 games
47%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 28 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 27 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
80%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 20 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
494 picks · 272 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 553 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
463 picks · 373 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 348 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
389 picks · 332 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
354 picks · 829 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 848 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
331 picks · 192 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:38
Yellow Submarine 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:05:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
46% · 191 game50% · 294 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Tinker
TinkerRain
47% · 31 game49% · 204 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
46% · 349 games53% · 82 games
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Faceless Void
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
48% · 152 games53% · 280 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneXakoda
56% · 179 games53% · 42 games
OracleRein
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed38:47
Yellow Submarine 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:00:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainRain
51% · 234 games52% · 313 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBatyuk
52% · 160 games43% · 117 games
Kunkkaмистер мораль
Kunkka
Alchemist
AlchemistShigetsu
52% · 81 game53% · 179 games
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
52% · 248 games55% · 70 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
45% · 120 games45% · 164 games
Muertaswedenstrong
Muerta
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2