European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BBackstreetboysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 33 games
Tusk
mrls · 29 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
Backstreetboys
Muerta
armageddon · 3 games
Tusk
Stoic · 3 games
Windranger
armageddon · 3 games
Axe
StoneBank · 2 games
Disruptoroften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
paw · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
paw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
767 picks · 354 bans
Hoodwink
572 picks · 299 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 551 bans
Jakiro
527 picks · 385 bans
Dragon Knight
511 picks · 616 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 288 bans
Mars
468 picks · 739 bans
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
Yellow Submarine 70%Backstreetboys 30%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Weaverpaw
ViperMirele
SlardarStoneBank
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
DazzleStoic
Shadow DemonHtrd
Rikiarmageddon
Tuskprblms
Game 2prediction correct46:30
Yellow Submarine 72%Backstreetboys 28%
The model gave 72% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:01:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunabottega
Anti-Magepaw
Void SpiritMirele
AxeStoneBank
UnderlordInfernal
Batriderarmageddon
Naga SirenHtrd
DisruptorStoic
Muertaprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 85%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2