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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 31 game
58%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 26 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 23 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
56%

Dragon Esports

Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 646 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
385 picks · 411 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 492 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
378 picks · 164 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 600 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 722 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 484 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
326 picks · 160 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:31
Yellow Submarine 69%Dragon Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSatanic
54% · 49 games48% · 153 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
49% · 44 games46% · 204 games
Gyrocopterpaw
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal Beastkasane
53% · 203 games48% · 279 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Phoenix
Phoenixrue
51% · 160 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
56% · 180 games
Game 2prediction correct37:15
Yellow Submarine 67%Dragon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 17:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
40% · 106 games57% · 242 games
Tinydualrazee
Tiny
Phoenix
Phoenixkasane
47% · 172 games56% · 180 games
Lifestealerpaw
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
44% · 54 games53% · 203 games
Vengeful SpiritNorma
Vengeful Spirit
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorasdekor_r
47% · 7 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerrue
49% · 286 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 82%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2