Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 32 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 29 games
Techies
rue · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 25 games
Rubick
rue · 20 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 6 games
Sven
paw · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
388 picks · 710 bans
Weaver
326 picks · 626 bans
Hoodwink
323 picks · 264 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 372 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 469 bans
Rubick
321 picks · 216 bans
Dark Willow
301 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
297 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 32%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
Yellow Submarine 77%Dragon Esports 23%
The model gave 77% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSatanic
Troll Warlordpaw
Dark Seerkasane
Rubickdualrazee
Puckerase
MagnusNorma
Hoodwinkrue
Jakiroasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct44:15
Yellow Submarine 76%Dragon Esports 24%
The model gave 76% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
Weaverpaw
Sand Kingkasane
Broodmotherdualrazee
Ember Spiriterase
DoomNorma
Morphlingrue
Disruptorasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 91%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2