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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 33 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 28 games
50%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 23 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
53%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 25 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 22 games
41%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
re1bl · 20 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 16 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 15 games
47%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 615 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 373 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
341 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 443 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 416 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 160 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 555 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total55% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
Yellow Submarine 54%HULIGANI 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSatanic
52% · 88 games48% · 195 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
56% · 213 games47% · 185 games
Puckre1bl
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal Beastkasane
57% · 239 games49% · 312 games
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
46% · 201 game43% · 192 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
58% · 178 games45% · 35 games
Witch DoctorPanto
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct38:36
Yellow Submarine 53%HULIGANI 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSatanic
52% · 88 games49% · 268 games
Tinyre1bl
Tiny
Underlord
Underlordkasane
50% · 67 games52% · 129 games
Windrangerv1olent-
Windranger
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
50% · 295 games51% · 176 games
DoomMiyaoo
Doom
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
48% · 207 games45% · 39 games
Witch DoctorPanto
Witch Doctor
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
50% · 148 games52% · 193 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 55%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2