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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 32 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 25 games
68%
Techies
Techies
rue · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 24 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 18 games
50%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 24 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 22 games
41%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Panto · 18 games
72%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
422 picks · 355 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 451 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 830 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 869 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
365 picks · 752 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 517 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 504 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 582 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total53% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:29
Yellow Submarine 52%HULIGANI 48%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 25:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
54% · 43 games50% · 150 games
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Kunkka
Puck
Puckerase
51% · 223 games51% · 77 games
Slarkv1olent-
Slark
Underlord
Underlordkasane
40% · 51 game42% · 287 games
PangolierMirage
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
43% · 252 games64% · 236 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
50% · 278 games55% · 97 games
ChenPanto
Chen
Game 2prediction correct39:31
Yellow Submarine 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 51:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
53% · 204 games53% · 264 games
Svenv1olent-
Sven
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
52% · 223 games53% · 159 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
47% · 276 games52% · 262 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
38% · 197 games54% · 223 games
WeaverOneJey
Weaver
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
44% · 374 games53% · 366 games
RubickPanto
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct12:31
Yellow Submarine 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinerase
50% · 160 games57% · 124 games
Slarkv1olent-
Slark
Lina
LinaSatanic
45% · 100 games54% · 220 games
DoomAlberkaaa
Doom
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkasane
47% · 211 games51% · 227 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Rubick
Rubickrue
47% · 249 games53% · 129 games
MiranaPanto
Mirana
Sven
Svenasdekor_r
46% · 209 games51% · 229 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3