Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 32 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 29 games
Techies
rue · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 24 games
Rubick
rue · 20 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
Level UP
Rubick
Jeezy · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 8 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Bor@nija · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 705 bans
Weaver
326 picks · 621 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 374 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 467 bans
Hoodwink
321 picks · 257 bans
Rubick
320 picks · 214 bans
Dark Willow
305 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
297 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength67% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total86% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
Yellow Submarine 73%Level UP 27%
The model gave 73% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSatanic
Doomififall
Pangoliererase
Templar AssassinFocus
Marskasane
RubickJeezy
Snapfirerue
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct42:25
Yellow Submarine 71%Level UP 29%
The model gave 71% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSatanic
Troll WarlordFocus
Sand Kingkasane
Slardarififall
Templar Assassinerase
HoodwinkJeezy
Nyx Assassinrue
Elder TitanSsaSpartan
Jakiroasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 86%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2