Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 30 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 30 games
Techies
rue · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
erase · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 20 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 20 games
Rubick
rue · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
MOUZ
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 45 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 45 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 39 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 37 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 32 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
377 picks · 786 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
345 picks · 248 bans
Weaver
342 picks · 713 bans
Clockwerk
316 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
306 picks · 499 bans
Gyrocopter
303 picks · 374 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 618 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:29
Yellow Submarine 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
AlchemistUlnit
Beastmasterkasane
Ember SpiritSupream^
Sand Kingerase
BrewmasterForce
Chenasdekor_r
HoodwinkNARMAN
Windrangerrue
Jakirobengan
Game 2prediction correct26:20
Yellow Submarine 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
AlchemistUlnit
Sand Kingerase
Ember SpiritSupream^
Underlordkasane
PangolierForce
Enchantressasdekor_r
HoodwinkNARMAN
Morphlingrue
Jakirobengan
Game 3prediction correct20:14
Yellow Submarine 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSatanic
GyrocopterUlnit
Beastmasterkasane
Sand KingForce
Pangoliererase
InvokerSupream^
Hoodwinkrue
RubickNARMAN
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Jakirobengan
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3