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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%

One Move

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 19 games
37%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 19 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 18 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 16 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
498 picks · 535 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 430 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 356 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 504 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
320 picks · 699 bans
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
298 picks · 174 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 434 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
295 picks · 189 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Yellow Submarine 39%One Move 61%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 1:10:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebottega
46% · 225 games42% · 163 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirele
51% · 89 games50% · 169 games
Abaddonlaise
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
50% · 118 games54% · 85 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanmrls
53% · 161 game61% · 159 games
Naga SirenFishman
Naga Siren
Warlock
WarlockXakoda
43% · 104 games48% · 121 game
Lionsayuw
Lion
Game 2prediction correct36:40
Yellow Submarine 41%One Move 59%
The model gave 59% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 49:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbottega
51% · 84 games48% · 76 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
55% · 168 games49% · 96 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsInfernal
51% · 77 games43% · 76 games
Axelaise
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanmrls
57% · 161 game44% · 189 games
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXakoda
55% · 133 games45% · 186 games
Marcisayuw
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 71%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2