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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team NextUploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 15 games
47%
Techies
Techies
rue · 13 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 12 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
pJonn · 12 games
33%

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
464 picks · 739 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 693 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
427 picks · 343 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 895 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
394 picks · 176 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 190 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 34%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total87% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:29
Yellow Submarine 74%Team NextUp 26%
The model gave 74% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
53% · 212 games49% · 201 game
Sven7jesu
Sven
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
52% · 321 game55% · 167 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightemptiness
45% · 133 games55% · 367 games
DoomMiyaoo
Doom
Tiny
Tinyrue
45% · 176 games46% · 323 games
Batriderso bad
Batrider
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
50% · 216 games
Game 2prediction correct42:20
Yellow Submarine 74%Team NextUp 26%
The model gave 74% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSatanic
48% · 64 games47% · 240 games
Terrorblade7jesu
Terrorblade
Leshrac
Leshracerase
53% · 141 game45% · 315 games
PangolierMirage
Pangolier
Mars
Marsemptiness
52% · 219 games49% · 108 games
RazorMiyaoo
Razor
Techies
Techiesasdekor_r
54% · 386 games51% · 363 games
Batriderso bad
Batrider
Tiny
Tinyrue
52% · 216 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 87%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2