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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 41 game
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
not me · 20 games
65%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 13 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Rain · 13 games
62%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
37%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 21 game
38%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 19 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Abed · 19 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
35%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
642 picks · 446 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
598 picks · 339 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
454 picks · 532 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
453 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 356 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 394 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 504 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 995 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
Yellow Submarine 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShigetsu
54% · 205 games54% · 262 games
Nature's ProphetTimado
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyBatyuk
40% · 259 games47% · 68 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRain
46% · 275 games49% · 325 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
53% · 197 games46% · 216 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfireWein
54% · 238 games56% · 303 games
BaneFly
Bane
Game 2prediction correct14:31
Yellow Submarine 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzShigetsu
49% · 45 games54% · 144 games
LifestealerTimado
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRain
48% · 312 games47% · 362 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyBatyuk
40% · 350 games51% · 268 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickWein
50% · 276 games58% · 167 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
43% · 186 games61% · 228 games
BaneFly
Bane
Game 3prediction correct19:44
Yellow Submarine 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 56:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
49% · 94 games50% · 225 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBatyuk
49% · 187 games46% · 271 game
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Largo
LargoRain
53% · 169 games50% · 171 game
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Lich
LichXakoda
58% · 83 games52% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Tiny
TinyWein
45% · 427 games48% · 183 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3