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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Young Bloodloss 1:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Young Blood

Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Red · 2 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 2 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MamangDaya · 1 game
100%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
100%
Lich
Lich
LOyd · 1 game
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Red · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
100%

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 8 games
38%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
445 picks · 365 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
414 picks · 552 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
370 picks · 471 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 566 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 588 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
350 picks · 382 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Young Blood
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:25
Young Blood 30%Execration 70%
The model gave 70% on Execration — the game was taken by Young Blood in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTraVins
48% · 269 games52% · 172 games
Monkey KingAkashi
Monkey King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMamangDaya
58% · 58 games50% · 163 games
MarciTino-
Marci
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerRed
48% · 116 games52% · 254 games
MuertaShanks
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
48% · 225 games47% · 376 games
Gyrocoptercml
Gyrocopter
Phoenix
PhoenixLOyd
47% · 297 games
Game 2prediction correct30:42
Young Blood 30%Execration 70%
The model gave 70% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:01:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTraVins
48% · 114 games51% · 175 games
Templar AssassinAkashi
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMamangDaya
44% · 103 games61% · 25 games
LycanTino-
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterRed
52% · 25 games52% · 98 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLOyd
55% · 48 games43% · 103 games
Lichcml
Lich
Lion
Liondalul
52% · 111 games
Game 3prediction correct38:36
Young Blood 31%Execration 69%
The model gave 69% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 59:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTraVins
53% · 308 games50% · 102 games
Naga SirenAkashi
Naga Siren
Zeus
ZeusMamangDaya
47% · 80 games49% · 186 games
DoomTino-
Doom
Lycan
LycanRed
45% · 35 games49% · 183 games
MuertaShanks
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
44% · 257 games52% · 334 games
Clockwerkcml
Clockwerk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLOyd
58% · 125 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 85%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3