Zenith vs Cloud Rising — prediction DS3ОО · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1

result vs prediction

ZZenithwin 2:0

series probability

54%46%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Cloud Risingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zenith

No games played over 6 months.

Cloud Rising

Pucksignature

Q7 · 6 games

67%

Axeoften banned

Ice Coke · 5 games

40%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Q7 · 5 games

20%

Kezoften banned

Yumeyume · 5 games

40%

Witch Doctor

谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games

60%

Necrophosoften banned

Yumeyume · 4 games

50%

Primal Beast

Ice Coke · 4 games

50%

Storm Spirit

Q7 · 4 games

25%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

522 picks · 314 bans

50%

Dark Willow

439 picks · 212 bans

51%

Mirana

391 picks · 176 bans

52%

Winter Wyvern

339 picks · 305 bans

58%

Ember Spirit

327 picks · 503 bans

57%

Centaur Warrunner

306 picks · 292 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

285 picks · 512 bans

53%

Windranger

277 picks · 136 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%

Hero pool strength51% Zenith

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% Zenith

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:15

Zenith 52%Cloud Rising 48%

The model gave 52% on Zenith — the game was taken by Zenith in 36:40.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo