DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BCBreeki Cheekiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 28 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Pucksignature
Worick · 25 games
Breeki Cheeki
Slardaroften banned
ChodΣX · 6 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 4 games
Magnus
OneJey · 4 games
Muerta
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
608 picks · 556 bans
Tiny
532 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
474 picks · 532 bans
Hoodwink
465 picks · 237 bans
Tusk
464 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1022 bans
Puck
387 picks · 909 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
Zero Tenacity 63%Breeki Cheeki 37%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaKami
Lone DruidDarkLord^
DoomNefrit
Queen of Painспортик
Sand KingWorick
PangolierChodΣX
EnchantressMoOz
PudgeOneJey
TuskdEsire
Rubickasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct33:24
Zero Tenacity 61%Breeki Cheeki 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaKami
Beastmasterспортик
TimbersawNefrit
AlchemistDarkLord^
Storm SpiritWorick
UnderlordChodΣX
EnchantressMoOz
Chenasdekor_r
TuskdEsire
ClockwerkOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 73%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2