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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Jigglinloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 17 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 15 games
53%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%

Jigglin

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 5 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Copy · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
0%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
423 · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
Lelis · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lelis · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
427 picks · 347 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 537 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
358 picks · 447 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
358 picks · 190 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 578 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 536 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
334 picks · 358 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Jigglin
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:41
Zero Tenacity 43%Jigglin 57%
The model gave 57% on Jigglin — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteJigglin · 57%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1