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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 27 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 26 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 21 game
43%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pablo · 18 games
61%

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 26 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fly · 23 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 23 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 22 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
502 picks · 680 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 408 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 595 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
465 picks · 568 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 531 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
432 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 943 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Zero Tenacity 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinRetsu
44% · 63 games54% · 197 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
50% · 12 games53% · 297 games
GyrocopterLowskill
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierStojkov
44% · 338 games54% · 144 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
53% · 278 games50% · 42 games
IoImmortalFaith
Io
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
47% · 29 games53% · 40 games
RikiLelis
Riki
Game 2prediction missed18:34
Zero Tenacity 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by MOUZ in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRetsu
46% · 210 games50% · 268 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
51% · 134 games49% · 341 game
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
62% · 120 games37% · 118 games
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Phantom Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
56% · 288 games43% · 156 games
ZeusFly
Zeus
Enchantress
EnchantressLeBronDota
54% · 170 games59% · 39 games
RikiLelis
Riki
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Zero Tenacity 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRetsu
47% · 360 games52% · 311 games
Primal BeastCopy
Primal Beast
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
52% · 282 games51% · 468 games
GyrocopterLowskill
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyStojkov
51% · 510 games45% · 24 games
AbaddonForce
Abaddon
Rubick
RubickPablo
46% · 304 games48% · 390 games
PhoenixLelis
Phoenix
Enigma
EnigmaLeBronDota
56% · 163 games50% · 426 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3