EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwink
dEsire · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
Ringmaster
dEsire · 28 games
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 22 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 20 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 20 games
Muertasignature
Kami · 19 games
Banesignature
MoOz · 18 games
Natus Vincere
Hoodwink
Daze · 19 games
Kezoften banned
Niku · 19 games
Warlock
Riddys · 17 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 16 games
Rubick
Daze · 14 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 14 games
Axesignature
pma · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
497 picks · 361 bans
Clockwerk
361 picks · 646 bans
Bane
343 picks · 387 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 192 bans
Tiny
318 picks · 346 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 451 bans
Windranger
305 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total76% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
Zero Tenacity 37%Natus Vincere 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidnesfeer
Kezgotthejuice
LargoMikSa`
Underlordpma
Storm SpiritDifference
Ember SpiritNiku
MiranadEsire
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Witch Doctormrls
HoodwinkDaze
Game 2prediction correct15:47
Zero Tenacity 35%Natus Vincere 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Lifestealergotthejuice
Tinynesfeer
Earth SpiritNiku
SlardarDifference
Axepma
HoodwinkdEsire
RubickDaze
Grimstrokemrls
MiranaRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 76%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2