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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 20 games
30%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 7 games
14%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 6 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
monodrama · 6 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
534 picks · 558 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 388 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 515 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 715 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 197 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 589 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 3prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3