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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Jellyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 45 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 32 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 28 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 26 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 26 games
54%

Royal Jelly

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 3 games
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
741 picks · 349 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 638 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
534 picks · 283 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 1185 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
432 picks · 262 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 460 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 704 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
379 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:25
Zero Tenacity 75%Royal Jelly 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKami
50% · 152 games54% · 179 games
Nature's ProphetStojkov
Nature's Prophet
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNefrit
59% · 88 games45% · 257 games
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
54% · 253 games44% · 183 games
Dark Willowani-san
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
56% · 44 games
Dazzle
DazzleSe
43% · 82 games
Game 2prediction correct40:13
Zero Tenacity 74%Royal Jelly 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKami
57% · 165 games49% · 270 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
41% · 232 games53% · 252 games
PangolierMiyaoo
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
47% · 65 games52% · 338 games
Snapfireani-san
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
48% · 317 games
Dazzle
DazzleSe
51% · 81 game
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 88%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2