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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 23 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 23 games
26%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 23 games
61%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 538 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
446 picks · 494 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 229 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 286 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 359 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
366 picks · 808 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 516 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 526 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total61% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:36
Zero Tenacity 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNande
54% · 233 games50% · 215 games
GyrocopterShigetsu
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
49% · 396 games46% · 118 games
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Kunkka
Chen
ChenSe
62% · 131 game41% · 161 game
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
55% · 15 games43% · 175 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
44% · 106 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct21:34
Zero Tenacity 42%Runa Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
41% · 202 games52% · 181 game
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
47% · 213 games52% · 178 games
EarthshakerAlberkaaa
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckStojkov
47% · 187 games54% · 74 games
Rikinicky`cool
Riki
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSe
44% · 135 games61% · 126 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Bane
Baneyamich
50% · 47 games53% · 225 games
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 61%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2